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Grant Shapps bows to the inevitable on the boundaries
ConservativeHome Candidates will be selected on the old electoral map When Nick Clegg made his statement in the middle of the Olympics that his party would be voting against the Boundary Commission...
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There is no hope of a deal on the Tory boundary bonus in exchange for state...
Tomorrow’s proposals will not be implemented If the Tory back-bench rebellion on Lords reform had not happened in July then tomorrow would have been a big day for election watchers because of the...
View ArticleAs the new boundaries are published Clegg says there will be NO party funding...
Clegg rules out any “deal on the boundaries” and states that he will be voting against. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 16, 2012 The Lib Dem leader, Nick Clegg, has...
View ArticleCONFIRMED: The LDs are backing a LAB move to kill off the boundary changes...
Ex-Lib Dem CEO, Lord Rennard, backs move to kill off boundary changes until 2018. @paulwaughpolho.me/RqTNK7 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 30, 2012 This has the...
View ArticleThe Tories are seeking to bribe several smaller parties to secure their 20...
The Tories launch a multi-party effort to save their 20 seat boundary bonus, www7.politicalbetting.com/?p=53646 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 12, 2012 This could...
View ArticleCould the Etonian whose actions cost the Tories 20 seats really succeed Cameron?
Ladbrokes move Etonian Jesse Norman next CON leader price from 50/1 to 33/1 following Speccie article. This is him. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 10, 2013 There’s...
View ArticleBy May 2015 Cameron’s decision to campaign hard against AV might not look...
How UKIP is eating into the CON vote – pie chart of CON 2010 voters from today’s YouGov data. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 11, 2013 Under FPTP LAB is the main...
View ArticleThe boundary changes are nearly dead
The unelected “Lords” vote on how MPs are elected. The boundary changes are almost dead. bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi… twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 14, 2013 See full...
View ArticleThe #GE2010 seats:votes ratio hardly suggests that the electoral system is...
Based on the 2010 SEATS:VOTES ratio it’s hard to argue that the electoral system is biased against Tories. See chart twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 29, 2013 Other...
View ArticleThe boundaries: At least, either way, it will all be over tonight
+++Breaking CON loses #GE2015 +++@tnewtondunnAngus Robertson to confirm SNP WILL vote against the Govt and the boundaries review tonight. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 29, 2013 Tory boundary...
View ArticleSo far, at least, Clegg and the Lib Dems do not seem to be paying a price for...
So far at least last week’s Clegg boundaries veto doesn’t seem to have impacted on the polling twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 6, 2013 Is it now just a footnote?...
View ArticleThe Lib Dems are in no mood to change their leader
Nick Clegg appealing to delegates at LD conference to back him on economy pic.twitter.com/ILLwDLrkgE — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 16, 2013 Clegg looks safe until GE2015 If there was going...
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The Christmas Game: Part II
Many thanks to Harry Hayfield, for providing the fun for Christmas Day. Below are the The Google Earth outline of five UK parliamentary constituencies. Can you guess what those constituencies are with...
View ArticleIf the boundary changes had gone through the result of GE15 would be less of...
Jesse Norman – the old Etonian MP who led the 2012 CON backbench rebellion on House of Lords Reform pic.twitter.com/61siWbjrar — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 27, 2015 Did old-Etonian Jesse...
View ArticleHow Scotland and the LD collapse almost completely reverse the bias in the...
The dramatic shift in Britain’s political landscape As we all know one of the constants in British politics over more than a quarter of a century has been that the electoral system has been “biased”...
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Guest slot: The boundaries of reason
Antifrank looks at The boundaries of reason: the possible shape of the 2020 election I previously looked back at the impact of demographic changes on party politics from 1992 to 2015. That’s all well...
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Electoral analysis: The art of changing boundaries
Antifrank looks at the art of changing boundaries In my last post I spent some time looking at the likely impact of the impending boundary changes on the numbers of seats in different regions and the...
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Continuing his series on the boundaries Antifrank on the role of the Boundary...
The body that will oversee the shake-up In my last two posts, here and here, I’ve looked at the likely impact of the boundary review and considered how the parties might wish to see those boundaries...
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Antifrank on the impact of the big Lords Individual electoral registration vote
It could be more significant than tax credits The House of Lords revolt on tax credits has got a huge amount of attention. Less newsworthy, because it didn’t succeed, was an attempt in the House of...
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The Boundaries of Northern Ireland: 1921 – 2020
1921 – 1979 The six counties of Northern Ireland (created after the creation of the Irish Free State in 1921) have been returning MP’s to Westminster centuries, but it is only since 1950 when the...
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The Boundaries of Wales : 1950 – 2010
Where the total seats are being slashed from 40 to 29 The boundary changes to be announced tonight (and to the MP’s from England and Wales today) will see the first reduction in the number of seats in...
View ArticleThe Boundary Review: Round-up
Really useful interactive map on Boundary Commission proposals from Election Data – https://t.co/ZNADXqPE23 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 13, 2016 Thinking that God might be Jewish after...
View ArticleFirst projection of new boundaries suggests that at GE2015 the CON vote share...
This compares with the 12 they actually achieved Well done to UK Polling Report’s Anthony Wells for the speed he has got his boundary projection out. Based on ward by ward his computation of the...
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The boundary review is so favourable to CON because Cam/Osbo defied the...
The former Top Tory Two have left TMay a great legacy There’ve been two major changes to the electoral system that the Tories have brought which have combined together to make the boundary review so...
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Corbyn and the boundary review: not the disaster for LAB that it is but an...
Joff Wild is puzzled by the half-hearted response of Corbyn’s team. It’s as if they don’t care The only question from a Labour perspective about the result of the Parliamentary constituency review for...
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On top of LAB polling woes first analysis of the new boundaries suggests LAB...
The Tories only need a 1.9% margin YouGov’s Anthony Wells who runs UK Polling Report had produced his first analysis of the planned new boundary changes and the outcome is excellent for the Tories and...
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As the DUP prepare to back CON on the Queen’s speech here’s the implied GE17...
Electoral Calculus Will Team Arlene vote to make them Northern Ireland’s 2nd party One of the issues likely to come up next year is the boundary review and the reduction of Commons seats from 650 to...
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To add to the febrile political mix – next week’s boundary changes cutting 50...
One thing I think is for sure – there’ll be no move to remove the diminished TMay next week. MPs will be mostly focused on the position their own seats and the impact of revised boundary plans....
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DUP lose 3 seats in new boundary proposals to put it behind SF
This isn’t going to be popular with TMay’s supply & confidence partners Well done to Martin Baxter for getting his boundaries projection out so fast. His figures showing what would happen if...
View ArticleTories are aping DTrump when they claim the electoral system’s rigged against...
It is bollocks for minsters to suggest that electoral system favours LAB. Now CON main beneficiary .GE17CON win 48.9% of MPs with 42.4% voteLAB win 40.3% of MPs with 40% of voteLDs 1.8% of MPs with...
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What the proposed new boundaries would mean if Britain voted as in latest ICM...
The Electoral Calculus projection based on proposed boundaries And the Electoral Calculus projection on current boundaries Over the next couple of years the boundaries review is going to become a major...
View ArticleUK Special Elections Super Thursday 1 : February 15th 2018
Higham Ferrers on Northamptonshire (Con defence) Result: Con 1,414 (57% -3% on last time), Lab 557 (22% +3% on last time), Lib Dem 336 (13% +2% on last time), UKIP 109 (4% -6% on last time), Green 81...
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The planned new boundaries give CON 40 more seats than LAB for the same...
GB vote split C38/L38/LD10 on new boundaries: CON 40 seats ahead This makes Corbyn’s task much harder One of the big political developments that could have a huge impact on the outcome of the next...
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BONUS PB/Polling Matters podcast: What do the boundary commission proposals...
On a bonus episode of the Polling Matters podcast, Keiran Pedley is joined by Professor Ron Johnston from the University of Bristol to discuss the Boundary Commission’s proposals this week for...
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Why the boundary changes probably matter less than you think
Sisyphus was happy, reckoned Albert Camus. The Boundary Commissioners may have their own view on this: for the third time they are being asked to come up with new proposals. Their proposals for 2012...
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